Metals Scorecard, September 2026: Copper Ends Almost Where It Started, Zinc Stocks Pile Up and India Keeps Buying Foreign Steel
Copper finished September almost exactly where it began, after a swing of more than $750 a tonne along the way. Zinc and copper stocks in London warehouses rose sharply, lead stocks fell, and India imported nearly 30% more finished steel in the first five months of the financial year. Here is the month in numbers, and what they say about October.
Recykal Times Desk·30 Sept 2026·5 min read·12 sources
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Editorial image for “Metals Scorecard, September 2026: Copper Ends Almost Where It Started, Zinc Stocks Pile Up and India Keeps Buying Foreign Steel”, illustrating aluminium.
September's big metal stories were about rules: Europe's draft scrap list, tighter inspection checks and GST requests. We covered those in our Top 10 round-up. This scorecard looks at what the market itself did, using month-end prices and stock data, and at the quieter numbers that matter just as much for scrap buyers and sellers.
September in numbers
Metal (LME cash, a tonne)
1 September
Latest
Change
Copper
$14,395.50
$14,474.50 (29 Sep)
+0.5%
Aluminium
$3,261.00
$3,225.50 (29 Sep)
-1.1%
Zinc
$4,115.00
$4,060.00 (25 Sep)
-1.3%
Lead
$1,874.00
$1,876.00 (29 Sep)
Flat
Nickel
$16,350.00
$15,860.00 (30 Sep)
-3.0%
LME warehouse stocks (tonnes)
1 September
Latest
Change
Copper
233,500
250,475 (29 Sep)
+7.3%
Zinc
99,125
121,600 (25 Sep)
+22.7%
Lead
404,675
357,550 (29 Sep)
-11.6%
(Percentage changes are our own calculations from the London Metal Exchange settlement and stock data. The 30 September settlement for some metals was not yet published when this was written.)
Copper: a big round trip that ended nowhere
Copper fell to $14,044 on 14 September, climbed to $14,797 on 22 September, and was back near its starting level by 29 September. For anyone holding stock, the month's risk came from that swing. A trader who bought at the mid-month low and sold at the peak gained about $750 a tonne. One who bought at the peak and sold at month-end lost more than $300 a tonne.
What the stocks say. Copper stocks in LME warehouses rose by about 17,000 tonnes over the month. Rising stocks with flat prices usually mean supply is catching up with demand. For Indian scrap buyers, that can ease the pressure to chase prices in October, though scrap prices also depend on the rupee and local demand.
Zinc and lead: moving in opposite directions
Zinc stocks jumped by nearly a quarter, from about 99,000 tonnes to about 122,000 tonnes, while the price slipped. Lead went the other way: stocks fell by about 47,000 tonnes and the price held steady.
Why it matters in India. Zinc is the metal where Indian recyclers depend most on European scrap, and that supply is under question from 2027. Softer global zinc prices now give recyclers a little room. Lead, which Indian battery recyclers track closely, looks tighter on the global market, which tends to support scrap battery prices.
Steel: India grows while the world shrinks
According to worldsteel, India produced 14.8 million tonnes of crude steel in August 2026, up 4.6% from a year earlier, while world output fell 1.2% and China's fell 3.7%. India's finished steel imports in April to August rose 29.5% to about 3.49 million tonnes, and exports rose about 34% to about 2.99 million tonnes.
Recykal Times analysis: India imported about 5 lakh tonnes more finished steel than it exported in those five months. Strong domestic demand is good for scrap, since India's electric and induction furnaces run largely on scrap and sponge iron. But imported finished steel competes directly with Indian mills, and that caps how far local steel, and so scrap, prices can rise. (Our estimate: 3.49 million tonnes of imports minus 2.99 million tonnes of exports.)
Local scrap prices. At the end of the month, domestic steel prices were mostly stable, with soft demand:
Melting scrap at Alang: about $396 a tonne on 30 September, after swinging between $385 and $399 from 28 to 30 September.
Heavy melting scrap (80:20) at Mandi Gobindgarh: ₹38,400 a tonne in the week to 28 September, down from ₹39,200 on 18 September.
Sponge iron in Raipur: about $307 a tonne on 29 September.
Two quieter signals
Stainless steel scrap is getting cheaper. In the week to 18 September, grade 304 stainless scrap in Delhi fell by ₹3,000 to about ₹1.48 lakh a tonne, as mills switched to cheaper nickel pig iron and billets.
Fewer ships are going to the breakers. Ship recycling reports through September said high tanker freight rates are keeping older ships working instead of being sold for scrap. That means fewer ships beaching at Alang, one of India's main sources of domestic steel scrap.
What this means for you
Copper and brass dealers: The month showed how quickly copper can move $300 to $750 a tonne. Keep stock light or hedge if you can, and watch LME stocks for signs of easing supply.
Zinc and lead recyclers: Softer zinc prices give some breathing room, while firmer lead supports battery scrap. Both are worth tracking weekly.
Ferrous traders and furnace owners: Domestic demand is holding up, but imported finished steel limits how far prices can climb. Alang supply may stay thin while freight rates are high.
Kabadiwalas and local collectors: Steady domestic demand means steady buying for ferrous scrap. Stainless buyers are paying less for now.
October watchlist
7 October 2026: GST Council meeting.
16 October 2026: Comments close on the EU's draft scrap list.
31 October 2026: First half-yearly EPR returns for aluminium, copper and zinc.
LME stocks: whether copper and zinc stocks keep rising.
Freight rates: whether they ease enough to send more ships to Alang.
The bottom line
On price alone, September looked calm for metals. Underneath, copper swung hard, zinc supply loosened, lead tightened and foreign steel kept arriving. In October, the businesses that do best are likely to be those watching warehouse stocks and freight rates as closely as the headline price.
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