Scrap Prices Were Weak Before Diwali in 2023, 2024 and 2025, and Are Weak Again in 2026. Only One of Those Diwalis Brought a Real Rebound.
National heavy melting scrap (HMS) fell 3.9% on our price page from 5 to 19 October 2026, from ₹38.60 to ₹37.10 a kg, and a public market report shows Mandi falling 3.8% in the week to 16 October. Diwali is on Sunday 8 November. We went back through public trade reports for the three earlier festivals. In each, prices were soft in the weeks before Diwali. What came after was different every time: a strong rebound in 2024, a weak one in 2025 and none in 2023. Four festivals are too few to call a rule, but they show what a yard can and cannot count on.
The slide of October 2026
HMS rose 13.5% from ₹34.00 a kg on 8 July to ₹38.60 on 5 October, by our estimate. Our 5 October report covered a ₹1,300 a tonne weekly jump at Mandi Gobindgarh as power cuts hit mills in Chhattisgarh. Then the price turned. Every move since 8 October has been downward, and the two weeks to 19 October are the sharpest fall in the year of daily prices our HMS page holds.
The public report agrees on direction. It put HMS delivered at Mandi at ₹39,200 a tonne on 9 October and ₹37,700 on 16 October, and it described cautious buyers, limited demand and festive caution weighing on restocking.
The numbers at a glance
| Diwali | Before the festival | After the festival |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 (Sunday 12 November) | Mandi at ₹36,000 to 36,500 on 20 October, down ₹500 to 1,000 in a week | No rebound. On 27 November the Mandi end-cutting index was at a five-week low of ₹37,500 |
| 2024 (Thursday 31 October) | Mandi HMS fell 7.8%, from ₹35,800 on 14 October to ₹33,000 on 29 October | Rebounded about 6% to near ₹35,000 by about 9 November, and stood at ₹34,200 on 23 November |
| 2025 (Monday 20 October) | Mandi HMS on 31 October was ₹1,000, or about 3%, below a month earlier, and most of that fall came before the festival | Sideways. Our page rose 1.6% by 19 November and 2.6% by 4 December |
| 2026 (Sunday 8 November) | Our HMS fell 3.9% from 5 to 19 October. Mandi fell 3.8% from 9 to 16 October | Not known yet |
(Mandi figures are HMS (80:20) delivered, from public trade reports, except 2023, which gives a range and a different grade. The 2024 figure for about 9 November and the 2025 monthly fall are our estimates from the reports' one-month change columns. That most of the 2025 fall came before the festival is our reading, since our page shows almost no change from 20 to 31 October. Our page figures are national rates.)
The year the rebound came
In 2024, Mandi HMS dropped ₹2,800 a tonne from 14 to 29 October, two days before Diwali. Then it climbed back about ₹2,000 in nine days, by our estimate, and on 23 November it stood ₹1,200 above the 29 October low. A trade report on 22 October said steel buyers were holding off ahead of the festive holidays and waiting for an upturn after Diwali. In 2024, the upturn came.
The years it did not
In 2025, our page shows HMS at ₹30.50 a kg on Diwali day, ₹30.20 ten days later and ₹30.50 again by 1 November. It was ₹31.00 on 19 November. The public report for 31 October puts Mandi at ₹30,700, within ₹200 a tonne of ours, so the two agree. A November 2025 market review said the expected post-festival pickup in steel failed to arrive, with steel prices at five-year lows.
In 2023, no rebound appeared. Prices were already softening three weeks before Diwali, and on 27 November the Mandi index was at a five-week low.
Why it matters
The weeks before Diwali have been weak in all four years, which fits what trade reports say about buyers holding off before the holidays. The rebound depends on something else: whether steel demand and steel prices are strong enough for mills to buy again. In 2024 they were. In 2025 steel prices were at five-year lows, and scrap stayed flat.
Three caveats apply. Four festivals are a small sample. October is also a slow season after the monsoon, so a Diwali effect cannot be separated from that. And the sources vary, with different grades and one range, so we compare each year only with itself.
What this means for you
Kabadiwalas and small yards: A fall before Diwali has happened in every year we checked, so a lower rate in the weeks before Dhanteras would not be unusual. Our suggestion is to agree dispatch and payment dates with your buyer before Dhanteras, and to write the rate against the date.
Aggregators and traders: Do not plan on a rebound after the festival. It came strongly in one of three earlier years. Watch buyers' enquiries in the week after Diwali before you build stock.
Steel makers and melters: In 2025, weak steel sales came with flat scrap prices after the festival. Check your own order book before you buy ahead.
Plastics recyclers and non-ferrous sellers: These markets have their own patterns. See our report on brass and aluminium scrap rates sliding before Diwali, and check clear PET on our price page.
What to watch
- Fridays 23 October, 30 October and 6 November: the weekly market review and our HMS page. The 16 October report said a large price move depends on buyers coming back.
- Friday 6 November to Sunday 8 November: Dhanteras to Diwali. Our page carries the last value forward on days without a report, so a flat line over the festival is no price call.
- Wednesday 18 November: ten days after Diwali, the point where 2025 hit its low and 2024 had already rebounded. Compare it with the 29 October to 9 November move of 2024.
- Closing dates on our Auctions page: check which public scrap lots close in festival week and open the official listing for the details.
The bottom line
Weakness before Diwali showed up in all four years we could check. The rebound afterwards showed up once. The record supports planning for a soft October. A plan that counts on a post-Diwali bounce relies on a year like 2024, and 2025 shows what happens when steel demand does not help.
Discussion
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