Imported Stainless Flats Surge 33% as Indian Mills Cut Output

When domestic stainless mills cut their melt, scrap processors lose their highest-volume buyers. Between January and August 2026, domestic finished stainless flat output dropped 9% to 1.76 million tonnes, down from 1.93 million tonnes a year earlier. High industrial gas costs forced Indian producers to trim melt rates, while Ministry of Steel Quality Control Order exemptions extended until 31 March 2027 allowed cheap overseas flat products and 162 semi-finished grades under IS 14650 to enter the market.

Who Gains: Overseas Suppliers and Downstream Buyers

Foreign mills are capturing the market share Indian melters surrendered. Total finished flat imports rose 33% to 869,000 tonnes in January to August 2026, up from 653,000 tonnes in the same period last year. Indonesian shipments jumped 66% to approximately 230,000 tonnes, Chinese deliveries rose 65% to 207,000 tonnes, and Vietnamese volume climbed 62% to 190,000 tonnes. Downstream utensil and appliance fabricators gain immediate access to lower-priced imported coil without waiting for local mill allocations.

Who Loses: Domestic Melt Shops and Scrap Yards

Indian processors supplying domestic melt shops lose immediate furnace demand. As mills cut output, slab imports dropped 47% to 0.20 million tonnes, showing how sharply semi-finished melting cut back. Lower mill buying combined with LME nickel around $15,350 per tonne pushed imported 304 scrap prices down to $1,500 per tonne CFR Mundra in mid-October 2026, while imported 316 scrap slipped to $3,100 per tonne CFR Mundra.

If your yard sells 304 or 316 scrap to domestic mills, you are on the losing side of this coil influx. As long as foreign flat products flow in under QCO exemptions, domestic melt shops will keep scrap bids suppressed.