The UAE's Ban on Aluminium Scrap Exports Quietly Rolled Over on 8 October. Gulf Supply to India Is Already Down a Third.

On 8 October 2026, the temporary ban on exporting aluminium, copper and iron scrap from Dubai reached the end of its four-month term. It did not lapse. Dubai Customs Notice No. 13/2026 says the ban is "automatically renewable" unless Dubai Customs issues a notice cancelling it. As of 10 October 2026, it had not. The latest notice it has published, No. 18/2026 of 30 September, deals with free-zone exports and says nothing about scrap.

For India's aluminium recyclers, this is not a small market. The UAE was India's second-largest source of aluminium scrap in 2025-26 by value, after the United States, according to official trade data. Together, the six Gulf countries supplied 22.6% of the ₹40,196 crore of aluminium scrap India imported that year.

The effect is already visible. Official data for April to July 2026 show Gulf shipments down by a third from a year earlier, other suppliers filling the gap, and a sharp rise in the average price India paid. Meanwhile, two decisions that would change the cost of every imported tonne are still with the government: the 2.5% basic customs duty on aluminium scrap, and the rules on pre-shipment inspection certificates.

The numbers at a glance

Tonnage and value figures are from the Commerce Ministry's official trade database. Shares, changes and per-kg values are our own calculations from those figures.

The ban did not end on 8 October

Dubai Customs issued Notice No. 13/2026 on 24 June 2026. It applies a UAE Ministerial Resolution (No. 105 of 2026, dated 3 June 2026) on temporarily stopping the export of certain industrial waste. The ban covers:

• Aluminium scrap: five tariff lines under heading 7602
• Copper scrap: two tariff lines under heading 7404
• Iron and steel scrap: nine tariff lines under heading 7204

The notice set the ban for four months, from 10 June to 8 October 2026, and says the period "shall be automatically renewable" unless a notice is issued cancelling it. No such notice had been published by 10 October 2026. So under the notice's own terms, the ban is still in force.

The notice does not say how long each renewal lasts. If it rolls over for another four months, it would run to early February 2027, but that is our reading, not something the notice states.

Two exemptions exist. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Trade can allow shipments under international contracts signed before the ban was issued, and shipments it considers to be in the public interest. Exporters must apply to the Ministry for either.

At an aluminium industry conference in Gandhinagar on 26 September 2026, a Dubai-based supplier said the trade had hoped for a relaxation after 8 October but that the outcome was uncertain. The same supplier said scrap was accumulating inside the UAE while local consumption was falling.

What the official trade data show

The Commerce Ministry's monthly trade data run to July 2026. They show Gulf supply falling sharply this year.

Source: Commerce Ministry trade database, heading 7602. Totals and changes are our own calculations; t = tonnes.

The Gulf's share of India's aluminium scrap imports by weight fell from 21.5% in April to July 2025 to 13.4% in the same months of 2026. (Our own calculation from the figures above.)

The ban is not the only reason. UAE shipments to India were already down by about half in April and May 2026, before the ban began, from about 29,167 tonnes to 14,329 tonnes. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted since the Iran war began on 28 February 2026, which we covered in our Hormuz report. In June, the month the ban began, UAE shipments were 13,164 tonnes, down 19.4% from June 2025. In July they were 13,801 tonnes, down 26.6%.

Shipments did not stop. The notice allows exemptions for contracts signed before the ban, and it applies to specific tariff lines. The data cannot show which shipments went through under which route.

India paid much more for every kilo

The bigger change is in price. In July 2026, India imported 2,05,937 tonnes of aluminium scrap worth ₹5,581.95 crore, an average of about ₹271 per kg. In July 2025, it imported 1,89,742 tonnes worth ₹3,620.17 crore, about ₹191 per kg. That is a rise of about 42% in the average value of each kilo. (Our own calculation: import value divided by quantity. The average also moves with the mix of scrap grades, so treat it as a broad measure, not a market price.)

Across April to July 2026, the value of aluminium scrap imports rose 46.9% while the quantity rose about 6%. Put simply, Indian buyers spent almost half as much again to get only slightly more scrap.

Higher global aluminium prices, longer shipping routes and tighter supply from several regions all push in the same direction. The Ministry of Mines itself has pointed to moves in the US, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to restrict aluminium scrap exports as a risk to India's supply.

Who filled the gap

Between April and July 2026, the Gulf supplied about 46,000 tonnes less aluminium scrap than a year earlier. Three countries made up more than that:

• United States: 1,59,430 tonnes, up 31.6%
• United Kingdom: 67,488 tonnes, up 16.0%
• Australia: 33,466 tonnes, up 19.1%

Together they supplied about 53,000 tonnes more than in April to July 2025. (Our own calculation from official figures.) Recyclers say the switch has a cost. At the September conference, one recycler said buying more from Europe, the US and Latin America had raised the company's working capital needs by nearly 30% compared with last year.

The pressure is unlikely to ease soon. India imports most of what its secondary aluminium industry needs. The Ministry of Mines puts the share of raw material met from imported scrap at 80% to 85%, and imports rose from 1.8 million tonnes in 2024-25 to around 2 million tonnes in 2025-26.

The 2.5% import duty: still with the Finance Ministry

Aluminium scrap carries a 2.5% basic customs duty. Copper, zinc and lead scrap come in duty-free. On every ₹1 lakh of imported aluminium scrap, that duty is ₹2,500.

After a joint working group of primary producers, secondary manufacturers and recyclers met on 17 June 2026, the Ministry of Mines asked the Department of Revenue to scrap the duty. Its reasons, as it has stated them:

• Imported scrap meets 80% to 85% of the secondary industry's raw material needs.
• The duty puts aluminium recyclers at a disadvantage to copper, zinc and lead recyclers.
• Some finished aluminium products enter India duty-free under free trade agreements, while the scrap to make them here pays duty.

The Finance Ministry has yet to decide.

Not everyone agrees. The Aluminium Association of India, which represents primary producers, wants the duty kept until quality standards for aluminium scrap are in place. The Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI) and the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) want it removed. SIAM wrote to the Finance Ministry on 14 July 2026 saying the duty adds to raw material costs for component makers.

Inspection certificates: still under review

Metal scrap shipped to India generally needs a pre-shipment inspection certificate, issued abroad by an agency approved by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT); a list of low-risk origins is exempt. Recyclers say there are too few approved agencies in some exporting countries, which delays shipments and adds cost. Their association estimates that about 2,500 scrap containers reach India every day, and that overseas inspection and paperwork cost about $200 a container.

On 22 September 2026, a government official said the government was considering relaxing the rules. On 30 September, DGFT said no decision had been taken. It said the recyclers' proposal was under review, but that checks before shipment and checks at Indian ports do different jobs, so one cannot simply stand in for the other. The recyclers have proposed approving more overseas agencies and widening the list of low-risk origins that do not need the certificate.

And Europe is next

Europe was India's largest supplier region in 2025-26, at ₹10,217 crore or 25.4% of aluminium scrap imports by value. EU countries alone supplied ₹6,711 crore, or 16.7%. (Our own calculation from official trade data.) Under new EU rules, only listed non-OECD countries can keep receiving certain EU waste exports after 21 May 2027. India is not on the draft list for ferrous or non-ferrous metal scrap. Public comments close on 16 October 2026, and the first list must be settled by 21 November 2026. We set out what is at stake in our report on the EU list.

What this means for you

Aluminium recyclers and smelters importing scrap: plan as if the UAE ban stays in place for now. Shipments under contracts signed before the ban was issued may still qualify for an exemption, so check with your UAE suppliers whether they have applied. Budget for higher landed costs and longer transit times from the US, UK and Australia, and for more working capital.

Importers and traders of aluminium scrap: the price you pay has risen far faster than the volume you get. Watch the gap between your buying price and what smelters will pay, and keep enough room in your contracts for freight and inspection delays.

Domestic aggregators and dealers of aluminium scrap: with imported scrap costing more, well-sorted domestic material becomes more valuable to smelters. Clean, graded lots of extrusion, cast and wire scrap will be easier to sell at a good price than mixed loads.

Extrusion, casting and auto component makers buying recycled aluminium: your raw material cost depends on decisions not yet taken in Delhi and Dubai. Keep an eye on the duty decision and any change in inspection rules before locking in long-term prices.

What to watch

1. 16 October 2026: EU public comments on the list of countries allowed to receive EU scrap close.
2. Any new Dubai Customs notice: a cancelling notice would end the ban. Until then, it stays in force under the 24 June notice.
3. The next official monthly trade release: the August 2026 figures will show whether Gulf supply fell further in the third month of the ban.
4. 21 November 2026: the EU's first list of approved recipient countries is due.
5. The Finance Ministry's decision on the 2.5% duty: customs duty changes are often announced in the Union Budget, usually presented on 1 February.

The bottom line

The UAE ban did not end on 8 October. It rolled over, and the official data show Gulf aluminium scrap to India already down by a third this year, with buyers paying far more per kilo. Other suppliers have filled the volume gap, at a higher cost. Until Delhi decides on the import duty and inspection rules, and Brussels settles its list, aluminium recyclers should plan for scrap that is harder to get and more expensive.